A Ballot Of Fire

Issue #205

Elections are coming. There’s a lot of candidates. And we’ve got you covered!

Friday: Turkey recap hosts a pre-election livestream with Michael Sercan Daventry, the journalist behind James in Turkey. Tune in at 1100 UTC and send questions.

Saturday: Recap radio drops its İstanbul episode, so now’s the time to follow our podcast on Spotify or Apple and catch up on past episodes if you haven’t already.

Sunday: We’ll post live updates and news throughout election day on our members-only Slack channel. Sign up today and support our coverage.

In this week’s recap:

• Ready, Set, Vote!

• Mixed signals from pro-Kurdish politicians

• Savaş bashed, refugees less so

• Tracking Erdoğan, Iraqi oil and the Moscow attackers

• Market reacts to surprise rate hike

• Turkish Rambo, world savior remembered

And in our original reports:

• Ingrid Woudwijk on how state-appointed trustees effect the Kurdish vote

• Sema Beşevli on why muhtar elections still matter

• Gonca Tokyol on the challenges facing CHP in İzmir

Competing election pavilions in Üsküdar, İstanbul. © Ingrid Woudwijk

Next week sounds nice. No elections for a few years and maybe less drama so we can focus on reclaiming the pun-making business.

But until then, we wish everyone a speedy voting process with clear results, and no 2019-style re-run elections – which would be held on June 2, the Supreme Election Board announced overnight.

Whatever happens, Sunday’s results will shape the political landscape for years to come, even if there appears to be less excitement compared to last year’s general elections.

“Young voters in particular don't care much about the elections. What happened in the past elections and their loss of trust in politicians is the main reason. They think there are no differences between politicians,” Ulaş Tol, a political scientist with CORE Research Institute, told Turkey recap.

“This lack of energy among opposition voters is not unique to them. Voters who support the government [also] don’t attach as much meaning to elections as they used to,” he added.

Still, Tol does not expect voter turnout to be significantly impacted, a sociological fact better explained here.

This weekend, Opposition media was quick to highlight the smaller-than-expected crowd at Erdoğan's İstanbul rally, despite the free concert tickets. An apparent AKP tactic has been to directly embrace less enthusiastic voters, though this CHP teyzesi did not seem happy after an unsolicited hug from a local İzmir AKP candidate.

"Local elections are being held in 80 provinces [but] there is almost a general election mood in one province. İstanbul is important for Erdoğan's regime dynamics,” Orçun Selçuk, assistant prof. of political science at Luther College, told Turkey recap.

Even AKP ministers hit the streets to garner votes for the ruling party and faced criticism from the opposition. The move was seen as a sign the AKP was not feeling as confident in key provinces, with İstanbul requiring the biggest meatballs to win. Yup, you’ve read that correctly.

Respondents in this Medyascope interview who declared support for AKP candidate Kurum criticized incumbent mayor İmamoğlu for failing to provide services in his 5-year tenure and prioritizing a public relations campaign for himself, instead.

“This country will flourish, everyone will prosper,” one said.

Raising the bar, Kurum claimed that the elections would bring joy to “the people of the Balkans, Gaza, Meskhetian Turks, all the oppressed.”

For İmamoğlu to be happy though, drawing only CHP votes will not suffice as he needs some İYİ and DEM party votes to win, and both parties are fielding their own candidates.

“On paper, this seems to be a challenging factor for İmamoğlu. But since the elections are being held in a single round and he is seen as one of the candidates that’s likely to win, this may persuade others to cast a strategic vote for him,” Selçuk noted.

“But compared to İmamoğlu, [CHP Ankara mayor Mansur] Yavaş has a slightly stronger hand. Maybe he may not even need to get votes from İYİ Party voters," he added.

As in every election, Kurdish votes will be pivotal. A reality Erdoğan himself is well aware of as he spared some of his last campaigning days to visit Diyarbakır and signaled he’d “be ready to talk everything with everyone” in an attempt to appeal to pro-Kurdish DEM’s voters (more on peace process prospects below).

Elsewhere, Erdoğan also accused the party of covertly working with the CHP like a “matryoshka doll”. But according to Tol, the main challenge for Erdoğan will be the New Welfare Party:

“The Welfare Party has become a legitimate and meaningful [option] for voters who are unhappy with the AKP. It will likely receive more votes than expected, making a negative impact on AKP’s and Erdoğan’s legitimacy.”

New Welfare Party appeals to conservative voters and this X user’s çeyiz. In its first local elections, the party might take away some AKP voters, and challenge the party in its strongholds. All speculations to be tested soon.

– Verda Uyar