A Syrian Umpire
Issue #240
Hello! We’re back from break and have to ask: Who kicked off 2025 better? This horse warrior or these models dressed as ‘New Year’ trees? Answers accepted through telepathy or the reply button.
Below, we review all the key political developments from the holiday break until today. The short version is that Özel said “cheese” in Kars and Bahçeli is still cruising, yes, in cars. RIP Ferdi Tayfur.
In this week’s recap:
Fidan renews threats of Syria offensive
DEM Party visits İmralı and other parties
Erdoğan declares 2025 “Year of the family”
Domestic and diplomatic wraps
Naming contest launched for smuggled baby gorilla
Also from us:
Wouter Massink and Lyse Mauvais report on potential safety improvements for Turkey’s deadly ship-breaking industry.
If you missed our 2025 Predictions issue, click now or forever hold your nefis.
“I just learned my doctoral student Esan Hasan became Syria’s new Foreign Minister. I was asking his classmates why he hasn’t been coming to classes for two weeks.”
This is what Hasan Aksakal, an academic at İstanbul Sabahattin Zaim University wrote on X about Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, the PhD student turned FM in Syria’s caretaker government.
Turkish media also heavily covered the appointment of Aleppo governor Azzam al-Gharib (studied in Turkey) and Head of the Women's Affairs Office Ayse al-Dibs (a Turkish citizen).
Another Turkish citizen, Omar Mohammed Jaftashi, was granted a high military rank. Turkish media were quick to point out he was on Turkey’s terror list. An individual named Ömer Çiftçi (the Turkish spelling of the name) was wanted for being affiliated with Al-Qaeda as late as 20 December, but his name is not on the list anymore.
Assessing the risks and opportunities for Turkey, GMF’s Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı argues that Turkey has managed to influence HTS to some extent, but adds: “Should HTS fail to moderate, a radical Islamist regime on Türkiye’s southern border could present a severe security challenge.”
Yet for now, Turkey is eager to engage with the new rulers in Damascus. Hakan Fidan was the first FM to visit post-Assad Syria on Dec. 22.
Following the visit of a Turkish energy delegation, together with Qatar, Turkey is to provide two energy-generating ships, while the Trade Ministry is encouraging construction companies to do business in Syria.
“Rebuilding Syria could provide a much-needed lifeline [for crony construction companies], helping Erdoğan sustain the clientelist networks that underpin his political power,” analyst Salim Çevik wrote in his overview of Turkey’s role in the transition.
Commenting on Turkey’s priorities, former diplomat and foreign policy analyst Aydın Selcen told Turkey recap that officially, Turkey’s position is to support the “unity and the territorial integrity of Syria”, as stated by Erdoğan.
Selcen added: “Ankara pushes for disarming and disbanding of PKK's Syrian arm, the YPG, if possible and preferably without having recourse to another cross-border military operation. Ankara also has an eye on taking part in the rebuilding process of Syria.”
Before the break, an offensive on Kobani seemed looming, but it has not happened so far. While the US patrolled in the border city, the Pentagon denied reports that there are plans to build a US base in Kobani.
Then, this week, both Fidan and Erdoğan started again to threaten a military operation. Fidan said Monday the eradication of the Kurdish YPG militia in Syria was "imminent".
In an interview with CNN TÜRK Tuesday, Fidan added: “If you do not want a military operation in the region, neither by us nor by the new administration in Syria, the conditions for this are clear. ... What are our conditions? ... The PKK leadership should leave the country.”
On Dec. 19, Syrian-Kurdish commander Mazlum Abdi said that non-Syrian YPG fighters will leave if a total ceasefire with Turkey is reached.
"Because there are new developments in Syria, it is time for the fighters who helped us in our war to return to their areas with their heads held high," Abdi told Reuters.
Yet Fidan said Tuesday he was not seeing any progress on this ultimatum, which was delivered through the Americans. Amid continued clashes between the Turkish-backed SNA and Kurdish-led SDF, especially near the Tishreen Dam, the US said it has been working with Turkey to prevent new conflicts in Syria.
State Sec. Antony Blinken mentioned Wednesday that the integration of the SDF into Syrian national forces and the departure of foreign SDF members could be part of a solution.
Much of the above will likely be discussed in meetings when US Under Sec. of State John Bass visits to Turkey Jan. 9-10. Yeni Şafak reports a visit by HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa is also expected. A Turkish MFA official told Turkey recap he did not know of such a meeting.
– Ingrid Woudwijk
Bugünler Yaşanacak: DEM Party visits İmralı and other parties
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