Accede Or We Burn The Country

Issue #237

If the heavy news cycle is weighing on you, let this snowy clip of the Van Lake Express transport you to a better place. If that doesn’t work, try the Sivas Kangal luge.

In this week’s recap:

• Syria offensive strengthens Ankara’s hand

• Van faced with new trustee, old court case

• Erdoğan faces pressure on Gaza policy

• Turkey reportedly hosts Israel-Hamas talks

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• İstanbul to unroll Uber-ish taxi system

Also from us this week:

• Damla Uğantaş interviews Prof. Hayat Kumbasar Karaosmanoğlu on rising HIV cases in Turkey. (In Turkish only)

• Diego Cupolo reports on the regional implications of Turkey-Greece talks, and how the Trump admin could impact the process.

Syria map by Thomas van Linge.

Following last week’s rapid takeover of Aleppo by HTS, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, pictures surfaced of a man planting a Turkish flag on the citadel of Syria’s second biggest city.

Another man was spotted holding up a Trabzonspor jersey in Aleppo. Meanwhile, Devlet Bahçeli said: “To the core, Aleppo is Turkish, Aleppo is Muslim,” disregarding the city’s diverse population.

Many analysts (though not everyone) believe Turkey gave a (tacit) greenlight for an offensive starting last week, when various factions of Turkey-backed rebels joined the leadership of HTS for an insurgency that captured Aleppo and much of the Idlib province from the Assad regime.

Newlines published an in-depth backstory on the fall of Aleppo, including many details about the role of Turkey. “Fed up with talking [about normalization with Pres. Bashar al-Assad], Ankara finally decided to do the other thing after months of keeping HTS at bay”, the authors wrote.

The Turkish-backed SNA was part of the insurgency, yet Turkish officials stressed that Ankara was not directly involved. "It would be wrong ... to explain the events in Syria with any foreign intervention," said FM Hakan Fidan after a meeting with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi Monday.

Pres. Erdoğan, for his part, said Monday: “Our greatest wish is for Syria’s territorial integrity and national unity to be preserved.”

Speaking with Turkey recap, Syrian researcher Suhail al-Ghazi said Ankara seeks to exert maximum pressure on the regime in order to draw concessions while battles continue on the ground.

“Turkey, Arab and Western countries agree to pressure the regime to take realistic steps on a political solution, the return of refugees and distancing from Iran, although the Arab countries do not favor all Turkish goals aimed at maintaining Turkish influence in northern Syria,” al-Ghazi said.

While pro-government media report some Syrians in Turkey are returning to their home country, the FT interviewed a Syrian that went to Aleppo but decided to go back to Turkey amid fear of regime airstrikes and unrest in his hometown. A swift return of refugees seems far-fetched for now.

Yet the offensive boosts Turkey’s influence in Syria, where Ankara is using the upheaval to achieve other goals, like pushing back on the Kurdish-led SDF forces. The SNA seized Tel Rifaat on Sunday, resulting in thousands of newly displaced Kurds.

While Tel Rifaat was captured without direct Turkish military support, government officials have made remarks about Manbij, another SDF-controlled town near the Turkish border.

“As for Manbij, it seems out of reach for the [SNA] due to its preoccupation with battles in the eastern countryside of Aleppo against the SDF,” Al-Ghazi said. “As Manbij is a big city, SNA will still need direct Turkish support while Turkey is still cautious on directly getting involved.”

Syrian Kurds fear for their future, Shiler Sido, a Kurdish human rights activist and humanitarian in Qamishlo, told Turkey recap. After being displaced from Afrin in 2018, her family recently fled the SNA offensive in the Shahba region.

“They didn't have a choice. You just go and run away, especially after the Kurdish forces told people that they needed to evacuate the area [to avoid] the massacres that could happen,” Sido said.

“We have a history with them,” she continued, referring to SNA. “We know that in 2018, the very same groups attacked us and committed massacres.”

She added that her family was evacuated to Al-Tabqah, but that the humanitarian situation is dire amid freezing temperatures and a lack of preparations by the Kurdish authorities.

In Turkey, the HTS/SNA offensive was protested by DEM Party and other pro-Kurdish groups. On Monday, 50 people were detained in İstanbul during a protest held under the slogan: “We cannot tolerate a new ISIS.”

– Ingrid Woudwijk

DEM Party Co-Chair Tülay Hatimoğulları spoke at an anti-war protest near the Syrian border Wednesday. Source

Actions speak louder Van words: Van faced with new trustee, old court case