Rize bears are done hibernating, and like you, they have to catch up on Turkey news. So, fill up your favorite Turkish tea glass and … [enter Madonna voice]: Just like prayer, you know we’ll take you bear.
In this week’s recap:
Turkey stops direct trade with Israel
Özel meets Erdoğan, then Bahçeli
Opposition parties mix and patch
Orthodox church reopened as mosque
Turkish intelligence issues spy warning
Also this week:
Yıldız Tar reports on the latest talks for a new constitution.
And look out for our new Economy recap every Friday at 6 am TRT.
Israel-Gaza news is churning. Reports of a ceasefire agreement did not materialize Monday and Israeli forces are positioning for an assault on Rafah amid US pushback.
Pres. Erdoğan Friday said Turkey would halt direct trade with Israel until a permanent ceasefire was established, stating the nation would “close the door” to $9.5 billion in trade volume due to “unacceptable” developments on ground.
The move builds on partial trade restrictions imposed by Ankara last month and the hardening position on Israel is widely read as an attempt to reinvigorate voter support after losses in the March 31 local elections.
“Turkey’s decision is very significant,” Michael Koplow, chief policy officer at the Israel Policy Forum, told Turkey recap.
“More than the actual dollars involved, it represents a big statement from Turkey, and it is notable that this was a move Erdoğan felt pressured into making by both more conservative and more secular rivals,” he added.
Those rivals include the conservative New Welfare Party (YRP), which gained votes in March while pushing Ankara to stop trade with Israel. YRP chair Fatih Erbakan continues to lift his profile with calls to shutter a NATO radar installation in Turkey which he alleges is supporting Israeli defenses.
In real terms, the trade restrictions will primarily hit Turkish exports to Israel, which in 2023 amounted to 76 percent of bilateral trade volume according to TUİK. Steel, vehicles, plastics, electrical devices and machinery top the list of exports, and Reuters reports manufacturers are already looking for alternate trade routes via third countries.
Among the options, Azerbaijan is a leading candidate for indirect trade, with MEI’s Gönül Tol also highlighting Azerbaijani oil is still being sent to Israel through Turkey’s Ceyhan port.
Meanwhile, top Turkish officials continue efforts to participate in ceasefire talks as the nation’s disaster management authority, AFAD, sent its latest ship of humanitarian aid supplies to Gaza Wednesday.
Putting Ankara’s Israel policy in the context of regional rapprochement efforts, Koplow said “pragmatic Arab states” still perceive Turkey as too supportive of Iran and Muslim Brotherhood movements.
“Turkey’s trade announcement is designed to insert Turkey into the conversation as a player after being frustrated that they have been largely shut out of mediation efforts or discussions on the day after for Gaza,” Koplow told Turkey recap.
“While Erdoğan has tried hard to position Turkey as the champion of the Palestinian cause, his rhetoric toward Israel has caused universal distrust on the Israeli side, and Fatah is suspicious of Turkish intentions as well in light of Erdoğan’s historical sympathy and support for Hamas.”
– Diego Cupolo
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