Hauling Assad

Issue #238

Okay, Santa is real. He was buried in southern Turkey. And archeologists might have found his tomb.

But according to legend, his bones were moved to Bari, Italy, where they leak water that priests, um, collect …

Hopefully to make mercimek çorbası. Kemik suyu is always good, but this stuff is a Myra-cle.

In this week’s recap:

• Syria implications for Turkey

• SNA seizes Manbij, eyes Kobani

• Party talks, peace process updates

• Domestic and diplomatic wraps

• Hagia Sophia to be restroyed (again)

Also from us this week:

• Damla Uğantaş interviews Nuh Akça on campaigns to stop Turkish trade with Israel (In Turkish only)

• Diego Cupolo and Ingrid Woudwijk report on the prospects for refugee returns to Syria

Celebrations in İstanbul after the fall of Assad Sunday. © Ingrid Woudwijk

Every action has a reaction, and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria will reverberate in Turkey for years to come.

To list a few immediate ripple effects, a new flag is hanging at Syria’s İstanbul consulate, Bashar al-Assad look-alikes are trending, Turkish bosses are already lamenting the loss of cheap labor and Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei seems to blame Turkey for the turn of events.

More broadly, nations hosting Syrian refugees are fast re-working asylum policies as mass displacement, uncertainty and active fighting continue to define Syria’s new reality.

Viewed from Ankara, Syria is a domestic issue because “Turkey is in Syria, and Syria is in Turkey,” as analyst Evren Balta noted here. With this approach, AKP officials have been calling for an “inclusive” government in Damascus with aims to prevent security threats.

Speaking Tuesday, Pres. Erdoğan said, “We cannot allow Syria to be divided once again.” The words are open to interpretation, but political insider and Hürriyet columnist Abdulkadir Selvi has clearly listed Ankara’s priorities in Syria:

1. The government transition process

2. Countering the PKK and YPG

3. Facilitating the return of refugees

Selvi added the “main goal is to dismantle the PKK presence on our border and close the terror corridor.” (More on that below)

Turkey’s main opposition party also seeks stability in Syria. In sum, the latest rhetoric aligns with long-held stances in Ankara, which some analysts say “may see itself in an advantageous position” due its support of “opposition forces since the beginning of the Syrian uprising in 2011.”

The question now is how Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani will manage a nation in flux, and with what partners. Analyst Gönül Tol notes Ankara has the “strongest” communication channels with HTS, but the potential for missteps and looming infighting could push Syria “back into chaos” with direct repercussions for Turkey.

In agreement is Henri Barkey, adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and international relations chair at Lehigh University.

“People should not assume the HTS is a Turkish subsidiary,” Barkey told Turkey recap, warning that “HTS will not be able to maintain discipline within its own ranks, let alone with associated groups.”

He went on, saying Golani will soon need to strengthen his control of events on the ground, which might lead to repression for some areas or groups with the potential for cascading effects.

“There are unintended consequences for everything. I mean, this whole crisis in Syria is an unintended consequence of October 7th,” Barkey said, referring to the Israel-Gaza war.

“So, you have to think that whatever is going to develop now in Syria is not going to come in a straight line.”

He maintained Turkey has the resources and influence to sway upcoming developments in Syria, though Golani may seek to distance himself from Ankara to project an image of independence as he seeks to consolidate power with local groups.

Still, Barkey argued the United States remains a key player, as Washington holds the financial tools and sanctions to influence Syria’s transition government and reconstruction efforts, highlighting the FBI maintains a $10 million bounty on Golani.

– Diego Cupolo

Dance your Assad off. © Diego Cupolo

Man-bij with a mission: SNA seizes Manbij, eyes Kobani