Let’s Get Ready To Kurum-ble!

Issue #194

Hey, hey! It’s good to be back for more in 2024, our fifth year in some of your inboxes and we have to thank all our fans and readers because we couldn’t do this without you.

Our coverage and readership grew significantly in 2023, and we founded a non-profit org – the Kolektif Medya Derneği – to keep the momentum going. That said, your support makes a difference. Each subscription and each mug sale allows us to produce more reports and pay more local journalists. 

It’s been a collective effort from day one, and by finishing this sentence you’ve just participated in a digital group hug. Happy news year, everyone! 

In this week’s edition:

• AKP nominates Kurum for İstanbul race

• Mossad affiliates detained in Turkey

• Turkey-NATO relations … it’s complicated

• Blinken meets Erdoğan on 4th regional visit

• New minimum wage hike melts away

• 2024 commuter olympics

If you missed our 2024 predictions, click here now. Also, check Matt Hanson and Sema Beşevli’s report on İstanbul’s water dilemma and Eray Görgülü’s latest insider report on candidate selection tensions in the CHP.

AKP İstanbul mayoral candidate Murat Kurum went into campaign mode Sunday. © AKP

We went on holiday, but Turkish politics never takes a break. Still, it might not make a difference for the 58 lawmakers who have yet to speak a word in Parliament since taking office seven months ago. 

Sometimes, words don’t mean much either, as MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli recently offered a walnut philosophy in response to a flag dispute: “Every walnut is round, but not every round is a walnut.” 

In more important news, campaign season has kicked off in İstanbul, which is projected to be the most consequential race of the March 31 local elections.

The CHP’s current mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, is officially running for re-election, and the AKP Sunday nominated their candidate: Murat Kurum, a current MP and former Minister of Urbanization. 

Emre Peker, Europe director at Eurasia Group, said he wasn’t too surprised about Kurum’s nomination over potential candidates like Ali Yerlikaya and Selçuk Bayraktar. 

Yerlikaya currently has a key position as Interior Minister in a stable and technocratic government, which might be a higher priority, according to Peker. 

Regarding drone-maker Bayraktar, Peker told Turkey recap: “Whenever he makes his political debut, it will be at the national stage not at the local stage,” adding Erdoğan would not set up a potential heir for a potential loss, as İmamoğlu is still a strong candidate. 

From this perspective, the nomination of Kurum signals loyalty, technocratic expertise and capability to execute the president's vision. 

“It will not be Kurum that's running for mayor of İstanbul, it will be Erdoğan and Kurum running for Kurum's mayorship in İstanbul. Erdoğan will campaign alongside key nominees,” Peker said. 

The housing problem in İstanbul coupled with Kurum’s experience with urban transformation, zoning and at state housing agency, TOKİ, raises the likelihood the campaign will focus on urban development, housing projects and earthquake safety.

In contrast to İmamoğlu, who faces obstacles from Ankara, Kurum will have state resources and state support. For example, he might benefit from the ability to grant title deeds for illegally built properties. 

But Kurum’s track record also comes with criticism from experts in the field, DW reports. Kurum voiced support for Kanal İstanbul and carried out zoning amnesties (that he referred to as “zoning peace arrangements”). These moves became very controversial after the Feb. 6 earthquakes. 

Peker did not expect this to be a dealbreaker. “If there were to be a campaign about the government's culpability in poor zoning and construction permitting, then we would have seen the results in the May elections last year,” he said.

The prospects for both candidates will also depend on the candidates of İYİ and DEM Party and their positions towards İmamoğlu. 

Peker concluded that while the election is currently a “coin toss”, there’s a possibility Erdoğan will campaign on national issues unrelated to municipal government. “He can turn the İstanbul race into something completely different.”

In other candidate news, the CHP announced a range of mayoral candidates in a chaotic and tempered party assembly yesterday. In addition to the nominees for metropolitan municipalities Adana, Aydın, Eskişehir, Mersin and Tekirdağ, current mayor Lütfü Savaş will run again in Hatay.

Savaş’ nomination drew angry reactions from CHP-voting earthquake survivors and analysts. He is heavily criticized for the way he handled the aftermath of the earthquakes, including defending contractors of collapsed buildings.

There is also one more candidate that we want to introduce: actor Erdal Beşikçioğlu, CHP’s candidate for Ankara's district, Etimesgut. His nomination has been the subject of debate, but to quote one Twitter user: his looks fit the word ‘Etimesgut’.

– Ingrid Woudwijk