Op-ed | Constitution arithmetics in Ankara
Two days before the May 14 elections, Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan signaled the government might take steps toward a constitutional amendment to change the 50+1 rule in presidential elections.
The topic has since prompted constant behind-the-scenes discussions in the capital, and more so since Erdoğan revived it last month.
Yet to pass such an amendment, Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) would need votes from other parties, and its largest partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), declared it wasn’t open to discussing such a change.
This stance can be expected since the amendment would reduce the AKP’s need for MHP support in the future. But to get there, the AKP will need MHP support in the present, as well as additional support from smaller right-wing parties – both in the ruling and opposition blocs.
Such dynamics have created a moment of “Constitution arithmetics” in the capital, where parties are leveraging and rearranging their positions in the political arena, and nearly every move is calibrated to maximize power.
Constitution arithmetics
Erdoğan and his AKP believe the current situation could help them achieve their long-sought goal of changing the constitution. They also hope it will ensure the continuation of their two-decade reign in power, which requires strong results in the March 2024 elections.
To guarantee electoral victories in Ankara and İstanbul, the AKP and Erdoğan may need to confine themselves to smaller constitutional ambitions in the form of a partial amendment package.
According to political sources in the ruling People’s Alliance, the AKP is currently seeking a positive signal from the MHP to advance a limited package – which would include constitutional rights on headscarf usage.
If passed before the March vote, such a move could bolster both parties’ performance at the polls. But getting enough votes will require some smart calculations.
To break down the math, the Turkish parliament has 600 seats. A constitutional amendment can be accepted with 400 votes or put to public referendum with 360 votes. Here are the number of seats each party holds:
People's Alliance = 324
AKP = 264
MHP =50
YRP = 5
HÜDA PAR = 4
DSP = 1
Opposition (not allied) = 276
CHP = 130
HEDEP = 57
İYİ = 40**
Saadet = 10
Gelecek = 10
DEVA = 15
TİP = 4
DP = 3
EMEP = 2
DBP = 2
Independent MPs = 3
** Subject to change amid ongoing resignations
The math shows, that even if the AKP manages to secure all the People’s Alliance votes, they will still need at least 36 votes to put the amendments to a referendum.
The left-wing parties in the opposition – CHP, HEDEP, DBP, TİP and EMEP – have 195 MPs. With DP, which mostly follows CHP’s lead, they have 198 MPs. In the eyes of AKP officials, collaborating with these parties while maintaining an alliance with MHP might prove difficult.
Among the right-wing opposition parties, İYİ Party’s position could be particularly decisive as İYİ Party support alone would cross the 360 threshold. If this formula does not work, the joint support of DEVA, Saadet, and Gelecek might be needed.
Although Erdoğan did not bring up the 50+1 issue again after MHP chair Devlet Bahçeli rejected the proposal, there is no reason to think the Turkish leader – who always plans for the next election – has shelved his constitutional change ambitions.
AKP sources told Turkey recap the atmosphere at the party’s headquarters indicates constitutional debates are continuing.
Erdoğan, who wants to reclaim İstanbul at all costs in the local elections, will take new steps regarding the constitution by closely monitoring both the balances within the alliance and opinion polls.
Putting the headscarf card and a partial constitutional package on the table before the local elections will require concessions for MHP and other right-wing parties, but the end result leads to AKP gains in the polls and history books.
Erdoğan and after
For context, Turkey uses a constitution adopted in 1982, which was drafted following a coup and under military rule. Many amendments have been applied over the years, but the core principles and laws are still in force.
Political leaders have wanted to replace this constitution for decades, and the AKP is no exception. The party has made several attempts and prepared several drafts yet hasn’t been able to succeed in its main goal beyond holding several referendums.
However, even though the AKP’s vote share declined to 35 percent, the increased representation of right-wing parties in parliament after the May 2023 elections gave the ruling party a new chance to start another round of constitutional talks.
There are several reasons for the AKP's desire to change the constitution.
First, AKP wants to institutionalize the legal changes it has achieved with a new constitution and make them permanent. For that, their goal is to revise some provisions – including the framework of secularism in education as well as the definitions of citizenship, fundamental rights and freedoms.
The AKP also wants to change the “maximum two-term” rule for presidents. Under the current constitution, it’s not possible for Erdoğan to run for another term if the parliament does not vote for snap elections.
And as previously mentioned, the president is not happy with the 50+1 rule that he introduced six years ago. After not being able to secure the absolute majority vote in the May 14 presidential elections, Erdoğan does not want to risk losing a possible third term for himself or a first term for other AKP candidates that will succeed him.
Even though the AKP remains Turkey’s biggest party, senior AKP officials told Turkey recap that they want to change the 50+1 rule because it has created a de-facto coalition period for them.
Some officials believe that the current system involves constant compromises with smaller parties – which, for them, makes the system a mistake from the beginning.
On the other hand, the MHP wants to use this opportunity to strengthen the security paradigms that are currently in place. Additionally, changing the structure of the Constitutional Court has long been stated as one of the party’s main objectives.
After the 2024 local elections, Turkey may potentially enter a period without elections for four years.
In this perspective, the ongoing constitutional debates in Ankara are more of a power struggle than a legal discussion, and the strategies formed in this period will lay out the future for not only the AKP, but also other right-wing parties.
This newsletter is supported by readers via Substack and Patreon. Paid subscribers get full access to our recaps, reports, members-only Slack and more. We also have pun-tastic merch. All proceeds go towards sustaining our journalism.
Turkey recap is an independent news platform produced by the Kolektif Medya Derneği, an İstanbul-based non-profit association founded by our editorial team to support and elevate news media and journalists in Turkey.
Get in touch: send pitches, queries and feedback to info@turkeyrecap.com.
Diego Cupolo, Editor-in-chief @diegocupolo
Gonca Tokyol, Editor-at-large @goncatokyol
Ingrid Woudwijk, Managing editor @deingrid
Verda Uyar, Digital growth manager @verdauyar
Sema Beşevli, Editorial intern @ssemab_
Onur Hasip, Editorial intern @onurhasip
 | A guest post by
|