Şam On You
Issue #219
When news brings chaos, we seek order. Watch these clean up jobs on İstanbul city streets and prepare to be soothed.
In this week’s recap:
Erdoğan-Assad meeting in the works?
Commission debates stray animal bill
Our domestic politics wrap
Erdoğan condemns western support for Israel
CHP MP slapped with alleged sex tape
Also from us this week:
Diego Cupolo on the state of Cyprus peace talks 50 years after Turkey’s invasion
While we may never see Erdoğan and Assad hug like this, a possible meeting remains on the agenda – or at least it’s dominating the news cycle.
On Friday, Erdoğan assigned FM Hakan Fidan to handle the issue, floating the possibility for future talks in Turkey or in a third country. Iraq has offered to mediate and host a meeting in Baghdad.
In a report on the regional consequences of a possible rapprochement, Syria expert Aron Lund told AP that Baghdad might want to deflect pressure from Turkey on the PKK to “create some form of positive engagement with the Turks, kick the can down the road, and deflect the threat of an intervention [against the PKK].”
He added Erdoğan and Assad might want to wait for the outcome of the US elections, and how that affects support for the YPG in northeast Syria.
This comes as Erdoğan last week said the end is near for military operations against the PKK in north Iraq and Syria.
Yet recent reports indicate Turkey has expanded its operations in Iraqi Kurdistan with, among other things, the construction of new military bases in the region. Local media also reported increasing Turkish airstrikes, which last week reportedly killed one journalist in Sinjar.
Back in Syria, Damascus FM made a statement this weekend, saying the restoration of ties depends on “clear foundations … foremost of which is the withdrawal of illegally present forces from the Syrian territory and the fight against terrorist groups.”
Prof. Fabrice Balanche, an expert on the region, warned an Ankara-Damascus agreement could lead to a humanitarian crisis in comments to RFI:
"If the regime regains control of rebel areas, most residents will attempt to flee to Turkey. Turkey cannot accommodate four million additional refugees,” Balanche said.
Fidan highlighted this issue Sunday, saying Ankara was not changing its position on the Syrian opposition. “In the regions our brothers control, they are preventing more refugees from coming to Turkey,” he added.
Fidan also stressed they would not send anyone back to Syria forcefully, but that’s exactly what’s already happening under the pretense of “voluntary returns”.
In northeast Syria, factions within the Turkey-backed SNA are divided over the recent developments, writes Syrian researcher Bilal Samir for MEI.
He expects the normalization of ties between Turkey and the Assad regime to have effects across various region, adding:
“The existing divide among armed Syrian factions and their varying levels of compliance with Turkish directives raise questions about Turkey's ability to control these groups in future confrontations,” Samir wrote.
Assad himself commented on the issue Monday, saying:
"The reference point for any meeting needs to be the cancellation or the end of the reasons for the problem: the support of terrorism and the withdrawal from Syrian territory. This is the core of the problem."
Syria researcher Suhail al-Ghazi noted Assad did not mention Turkey’s withdrawal as a pre-condition for talks, but that discussions should include the topic.
This is something Ankara can accept, Al-Ghazi told Turkey recap, adding Assad’s statements “only mentioned his own demands, [and] not Turkey's or political solution steps, which shows he's not interested in discussing this.”
“I don't think Assad will ever come to Turkey, and it will take several FM meetings in Iraq or Russia before reaching a joint statement,” Al-Ghazi continued.
Yet he also highlighted other signs indicating Turkey may re-engage with the regime including opening the Hatay-Latakia border crossing, discussions on water resources such as the Euphrates River, and ending Turkish attacks on areas under regime-SDF joint control.
“Issues on refugees return and Idlib will take time … and Turkey doesn't want to rush things in a way that harms or endangers its army units in Syria,” Al-Ghazi added.
– Ingrid Woudwijk
Dog bill afternoon: Commission debates stray animal bill
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Turkey recap to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.