That TİP Has Sailed

Issue #204

This week, Erdoğan joined a short list of world leaders who congratulated Putin for his re-election in a contest best depicted by this solo game of four-player okey.

For real coverage of more competitive elections, follow our podcast. We’ll go to Diyarbakır next and we must note all of our election coverage is made possible by readers like you.

A big thank you to our supporters!

In this week’s recap:

• TİP drama and election updates

• Detentions at Newroz celebrations

• Ankara and Baghdad strike PKK deal

• Fenerbahçe players attacked

• CB hikes rate ahead of vote

• Turkey-Greek detente hits a flag

And in our original reports:

• Gonca Tokyol on state efforts to better manage wildfires after the 2021 blazes

• Rabia Çetin on the pro-Kurdish DEM party’s election strategy

• Diego Cupolo and Ingrid Woudwijk deliver an İstanbul race pre-cap

TİP withdrew its Hatay candidacy for Gökhan Zan Sunday. © Sözcü TV

Exhale through the mouth for 8 secs
Inhale through the nose for 4 secs
Hold your breath for 7 secs
Repeat until election results arrive

We have less than 10 days until the elections, and while the Turkey recap team has observed "low enthusiasm with a lot of banners" on recent trips throughout the country, the results will shape the future of Turkey – at least until the next snap election or referendum.

In İstanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu holds a slight lead in most polls. Though in the capital, it feels like the race is already over as incumbent mayor Mansur Yavaş told Halk TV Wednesday that he expects to win by a large margin.

Several AKP sources told Turkey recap the ruling party has also semi-accepted a defeat in Ankara and would instead focus efforts on İstanbul. Still, we don't believe it'll be a huge loss for AKP's Ankara candidate Turgut Altınok, since, as one Twitter user mentioned, he has already inherited a large chunk of Ankara from his father.

On the other hand, a recent poll from MAK research shared by journalist İsmail Saymaz showed CHP could lose three municipalities: Adana, Eskişehir and Hatay.

In Eskişehir, CHP faces a power-transfer crisis after Yılmaz Büyükerşen – Turkey’s longest-serving mayor – vacated his post of 25 years, while in Adana, a strong İYİ Party candidate is challenging incumbent mayor Zeydan Karalar.

For Hatay, the situation is more complicated. The Workers' Party of Turkey (TİP) withdrew their support Sunday for their Hatay candidate, Gökhan Zan, a former footballer who became politically active after the Feb. 2023 earthquakes.

TİP stated they received recordings indicating Zan was trying to strike deals through his electoral position. Zan refuted the allegations, filing a legal complaint and stating he was subjected to threats – mainly from the team of incumbent Hatay mayor Lütfü Savaş.

"I'm never going to take a step backwards," Zan wrote on X. "I'm a candidate and am not withdrawing."

Local journalist and Turkey recap contributor Burcu Özkaya Günaydın said after the lack of trust created by the Zan crisis, she expected a significant number of his supporters to vote for Savaş, even if they don’t like him.

"Lütfü Bey is very happy," one of Savaş' team members also told Turkey recap. "Polls may still favor his opponent, but he is confident that enough people hate the [AKP] government more than him. Without another strong opposition candidate, he is the best of a bad lot."

– Gonca Tokyol