The regional implications of Turkey-Greece talks (and the Trump factor)

The unplanned ‘coffee chat’ at the Nov. 7 European Political Community meeting in Budapest. Source

ANKARA — As the region roils with conflicts, one area of relative calm has been Turkey-Greece relations. Initiated by ‘earthquake diplomacy’ in 2023, a series of high-level meetings have since followed, forging a sustained normalization process between the two long-time rivals.

This week, a Turkish delegation is in Athens for ‘Political Dialogue’ and ‘Positive Agenda’ talks. The outcomes of such efforts remain to be seen, but observers agree that open communication channels represent progress.

If continued, Turkey-Greece normalization could bolster trade, regional security and potentially unlock future Cyprus talks. The efforts may also help Ankara gain favor with the European Union as well as the incoming administration of US President-elect Donald Trump, whose cabinet nominees have taken clear stances against Turkey.

No easy feat, the process recently passed a challenge from within Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ own party. Faced with pushback on his rapprochement strategy, Mitsotakis ousted a dissenting lawmaker last month.

The move signaled the Greek leader was committed to pursuing normalization with Turkey, according to Ioannis Grigoriadis, assist. prof, of political science at Bilkent University and head of the Turkey program at the Hellenic Foundation of European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP).

“What is clear is that Mitsotakis is willing to protect the steps and the progress achieved in the last few years,” Grigoriadis told Turkey recap. “Let's not forget that Greece and Turkey came very close to a conflict about four years ago.”

Incentives for both sides