US policy shift on Ukraine boosts Turkey’s value as EU defense partner

Zelenskyy and Erdoğan in Ankara on Feb. 18. Source

ANKARA — On the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian FM Sergei Lavrov is in Turkey and the prospects for peace talks are in limbo amid the Trump administration’s outreach to Moscow.

Last week, on Feb. 18, US Sec. State Marco Rubio met with Lavrov in Riyadh to negotiate a resolution. The same day, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara to strengthen bilateral cooperation.

The two events sent a striking spilt screen to international viewers and, in a show of his appreciation for Ankara’s support throughout the Russia-Ukraine war, Zelenskyy finished his press statement by thanking the nation in Turkish.

“Teşekkür ederim Türkiye,” he said.

Turkey’s stance on the conflict is complex and multi-faceted, often labeled as a balancing act involving joint weapons programs with Ukraine and ongoing trade with Russia – periodically drawing scrutiny from Western nations for skirting sanctions.

At the same time, Ankara has supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Turkey has also upheld the Montreux Convention since the full-scale invasion in 2022, denying Russian navy vessels passage into the Black Sea.

The latter, coupled with Ukraine’s attacks on Russian ships, means Turkey has gained naval supremacy in the Black Sea while maintaining the second-largest standing military force in NATO. Both attributes are of high value for European leaders seeking to bolster their own national security.

As doubts grow over Washington’s defense commitments to Ukraine and the EU, more broadly, Ankara’s role in regional security is likely to expand due to its existing force and weapons production capacities.

Experts told Turkey recap the shifting security landscape is accelerating coordination between EU capitals and Ankara, placing greater urgency on addressing long-standing disputes that pose barriers to short-term cooperation.

“The general sentiment in the EU is that Turkey is more important than ever on security cooperation,” said Samuel Doveri Vesterbye, managing director of the European Neighbourhood Council. “That ranges from military procurement to Ukraine, energy, critical infrastructure, you name it.”

New momentum, old obstacles